Predict the Price of Gas on Election Day!
Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
$2.92/gal

My prediction is that gas will drop in the next few months to make the American people feel that the Republicans actually do know what they are talking about...thus leading to a McCain victory.

Gas prices 3 months after the election....$3.84.

If I'm worng, I'll eat crow.
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Posted by howdy (+4945) 13 years ago
I agree with you Mule Train and the way Obama is now dropping in the polls it might be accurate indeed. Apparently he will chose Bayh as his VP on Wednesday I hear thru the grapevine.
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Posted by Rick Kuchynka (+4464) 13 years ago
Gas will drop because it normally does in the fall.

Otherwise I think you've got it backwards though. People have finally seen through the empty blame-'big oil' and 'speculators' charade. The tables have turned... high gas prices hurt Democrats now.
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Posted by Bob Netherton (+1882) 13 years ago
I'd agree with you Rick, if "Big Oil" wasn't raking in record profits year after year and if they didn't have the Shrub and Duck Cheney (and now, sadly, MCcain) in their right-ass pocket.
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Posted by howdy (+4945) 13 years ago
Big Oil is in charge because we elected two people (Bush and Cheney) that were both out of the oil industry. I am not surprised and heard that predicted many years ago when it occured. I don't believe that McCain is in their pocket anymore than Obama as Obama voted for the Cheney energy package and McCain didn't to the best of my knowledge. I am sure one of you will correct me if I am wrong. Anyway, our economy is in big deep trouble and we need help badly and whether that comes from the democrats or the republicans matters to me not as I think they are carved out of the same block of wood. Call me cynical but that is my humble opinion.
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Posted by Rick Kuchynka (+4464) 13 years ago
Who knew 10% profit was a record?

http://online.wsj.com/art...lenews_wsj

Exxon pays more in taxes than it takes in profits. Now you tell me who's taking the windfall.

Again, Exxon benefits because they are an oil producer at a time when the commodity they produce is at a record high. At 3% share, however, it's not easy to argue they have any control over that commodity price. Common sense says they'd love to produce more if they had it, and their profits would skyrocket even further. Why isn't that happening?

Partly because Pelosi is working overtime cornering their market, then conveniently blames them for the result. There is no one solution. But drilling is an important part of the solution, and a great source of high-paying jobs to boot. Not producing what we can here is outsourcing, plain and simple. What we don't produce we import.

Please tell me that this flake wants more oil produced, and lower costs...

http://www.youtube.com/wa...2xYNaTRBxY

He can't. It's making us sick! Nancy needs to save the planet! Seems like they've finally dug themselves a hole they can't blame themselves out of.

http://politicalticker.bl...-drilling/

More than two thirds of Americans say they favor increasing drilling efforts off America's costs while only 30 percent disapprove of such action.

[This message has been edited by Rick Kuchynka (edited 8/4/2008).]
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Posted by Chuck Schott (+1286) 13 years ago
I'll play! My guess is $3.50 per gal, I don't think we will see gas below $3.00 again. After all it will be November and the natural gas/heating oil gouge will be in full swing and that may give us a small break in gasoline.
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Posted by JeanJones (+320) 13 years ago
I agree, this is all to get McCain in office.
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Posted by Rick Kuchynka (+4464) 13 years ago
Is this guy for real?

http://dyn.politico.com/p...D3D734A513

- Get 1 million 150 mile-per-gallon plug-in hybrids on U.S. roads within six years.
-Reduce U.S. demand for electricity 15 percent by 2020.

It's all so simple. I can't believe nobody thought of this sooner.
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Posted by jessiker (+292) 13 years ago
Hey, I'm guessing... Too much talking, not enough playing, people!!!


I'd have to say that gas will be at... hmmm...


$3.14/gal on election day.
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
thanks jessiker...Rick what's your prediction?

Besides from my price of gas prediction, I'll predict that Rick will have a very long four years watching our country climb out of the hole that his fearless leader of his favorite political party has put us in. I know he would rather have us all "stay the course" and totally ruin this country, but I'll predict things will get better.
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Posted by Levi Forman (+3713) 13 years ago
Telegraph.co.uk The great oil bubble has burst

By Martin Vander Weyer

http://www.telegraph.co.u...do0801.xml

Don't take off that tinfoil hat yet.
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Posted by howdy (+4945) 13 years ago
Will Russia invading Georgia affect the cost of Oil??
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Posted by Mark (+35) 13 years ago
I knew Putin couldn't avoid invading us.

Don't worry, as soon as he gets close to Mississippi he'll realize his error.
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Posted by Richard Bonine, Jr (+14965) 13 years ago
I have a couple of questions:

-for what city are we predicting the price of gas or are we talking about the national average? If we are talking about MC, the number of cases of Busch light sold at M&H during hunting season will affect the price of gas more than who wins the presidential election. If we are talking national average, it will depend on whether Israel has bombed Iran yet and the value of the dollar as compared to the Euro, more than who wins the presidential election.

Both political parties are being disingenuous about our oil situation. There is no shortage of oil or gasoline. There is no rationing going on and no one is waiting in line to fill up their vehicle. There really is no "energy crisis". Yes, we should drill early and often to obtain our own domestic oil supplies and build refineries to process the material.

Their IS a dollar crisis. The real problem here is that the Federal Reserve keeps printing dollars in attempt to "keep the economy moving". Neither political party has the "huevos" to tell us the truth, and take steps to fix it. It is interesting that every president that has attempted to deal with the Federal Reserve has been assassinated. JFK was the last one. If we would fix the dollar crisis, the price of gasoline will take care of itself.

-If I guess correctly, do I win a CASH prize so I can help keep a "mom and pop" convenience store in business?

National average for 88 octane unleaded will be $2.98/gal.

[This message has been edited by Richard Bonine, Jr (edited 8/9/2008).]
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Posted by Rick Kuchynka (+4464) 13 years ago
$3.39

I'm not so sure who's really voting for change and who more of the same.

http://www.youtube.com/wa...47sO1TCVmE

Bush wasn't really much of a town hall guy either. No wonder he's afraid to debate McCain

http://www.youtube.com/wa...Iym-8Q7uBY

Here, when asked to explain, if he hated Bush's energy policy so much, why he voted for it, attacks the reporter as a McCain proxy. He's going to have to do a little better.

Then again, what he did say then is hard to reconcile with his empty campaign talk...

"The fact of the matter is that I supported that energy bill saying at the time that those tax breaks were wrong but also recognizing that this was the largest investment in alternative energy in history"

Which is it? Did Bush kick back with a schmoke and a pancake, or did he sponsor the largest investment in alternative energy in history?

You can't have every side on every issue.
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Posted by Donna Kingsley Coffeen (+399) 13 years ago
I predict the consumption of beer will go up dramatically if McCain gets in.

I doubt we will ever see gas much below $3 ever again.

Do your kids out there still "drag main"? I remember how my dad used to howl about us using his gas and his car for that, back when gas was CHEAP!
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+17462) 13 years ago
I am going to go against the general trend here, and predict $4.05 a gallon. I'm thinkin' ole GW will embroil us in a war in Georgia, that will fire up the price of crude worldwide.
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Posted by Major Pain (+202) 13 years ago
I'm going to say $5.00/gallon, based on the potentials for war in Georgia and Iran, in combination with the always-to-be-counted-upon desire for more profits of the oil companies and speculators and the down-trends in oil production.

All it'll take is one little panic; I'm just talking about a 20% increase here.

You see the top edge of the following graph? That represents demand. Now, the falloff at the right (only up to the "forecast" line of course, the rest is speculation, though informed speculation) represents a decrease in production which we are told is due to fields that produce less; not less demand. So a likely interpretation of this graph is that natural demand continues to follow the trend set by that upper bound, so it is diverging from the production at a very steep angle (it actually looks like 90 degrees, which is pretty amazing!) With that in mind, what will happen is economic pressure will weed out the least financially capable, and this will account for shaving the demand to some extent; the rest will pay the higher prices that naturally occur for any commodity as it becomes scarcer.




[This message has been edited by Major Pain (edited 8/10/2008).]
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Posted by Major Pain (+202) 13 years ago
Should have just edited the thing. Here 'tis:



See the angle between the two red lines I added? That, in a nutshell, is why I think prices may be increasing in the short term; add a little panic (and we're due for another panic, it's been a few months) and that'll trigger a spike. IMHO, of course. ;-)
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Posted by Richard Bonine, Jr (+14965) 13 years ago
So are you buying call options for Dec crude oil? If you are right, you could make a pile of cash.
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Posted by Steve Craddock (+2733) 13 years ago
The situation in Georgia has added an interesting factor into predicting the future price of oil, but I think Iran will have a much greater influence and will trump the presidential race if war is imminent or underway there. So, I have to go with two guesses:
Iran situation worsens/war imminent: $5.40 gal
Iran quiet/McCain vs. Obama a dead heat: $3.25 gal
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Posted by Major Pain (+202) 13 years ago
Richard, I'm not much for gambling, especially high stakes gambling where I can't control any part of the outcome. Puts and calls are just too far over the "lose everything" line for my taste.

We (my partner Deb and I) like to re-invest directly in our businesses; we have multiple entrepreneurial outlets, consequently we're never short of issues to invest in where we *do* have a say in what goes on and how well the money is managed.

...and then there's the new house. We're building an interior into a 1940's-era church that was essentially an empty box when we bought it. Believe me, that's not an undertaking free of cash demands.

I watch things like oil prices because we very badly want to get off the grid, and these things drive the solar industry from behind to some extent. Given that I'm paying attention, it's fun to test the ol' prognostication bone. :-)
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
well, so far my prediction is slowly becoming a reality...gas has dropped $.40/gallon here in Denver in a month. I filled up yesterday at $3.62/gal. I need the price to drop another 70 cents in 2 months to make my prediction correct...GO GOP!!!!
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
Gased up today at $3.42 agallon in Denver this morning!!!!

I'm 50 cents away from calling it..............39 days before the election. It's going to be close. I actually think I'll be short by about 20 cents, but I won't change my original guess.
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
By the way...major pain...NOT EVEN CLOSE!!!! Sorry, I had to say it....please don't destroy my computer.
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Posted by Frank Hardy (+1610) 13 years ago
mule train:

If you are worng[sic], get your salt ready!



Cheers!
FH
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
I see the price of crude has fallen below $100 a barrel...and there is plenty of supply at the moment. I'm feeling more confident all the time that my prediction will be dead on! 2.92 a gallon by Nov. 4th.
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Posted by Barb Holcomb (+408) 13 years ago
I paid $3.09 for gas today north of Waco, TX. A few miles down the road it was $3.05. Everything else between Denton and Killeen ranged from $3.19 - 3.47.
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Posted by Maryann McDaniel (+251) 13 years ago
We paid $3.03 in Rockport, TX this morning, but as soon as we got closer to Houston and Austin areas the prices were never below $3.55.

By the way, lots of the debris from the upper Texas coast and Hurricane Ike is now washing shore in south Texas -- Padre Island, Brownsville, Port Aransas, and Rockport. Their beaches are a mess. We live about 50 miles NW of Houston and also lake home about 30 miles north of College Station in Somerville, which is where I am tonight. Somerville this far away from the coast was without power for two weeks. We were fortunate and had power at both of our homes -- just about 7 huge oak trees to cut up and dispose of -- and most gas stations had either no power or no gasoline. Lucky no house damage and we are counting our blessing. We went to a wedding last Sunday in a very upscale area north of Houston and everything had to be powered with a huge generator. Lots of places north of Houston remain without power. I am piling up the oak in case we need it this winter to cut back on our electricity bills at both places. Fortunate to have fireplaces.
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
The economy continues to crumble. Oil is now below $90 a barrel. Gas in Denver...$3.23...31 cents in 4 weeks???? NO PROBLEM!!!!
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+17462) 13 years ago
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Posted by GVC (+517) 13 years ago
Isn't that interesting? Can anyone tell me why the Midwest gets a break on gas?

GVC's wife
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
$2.92 a gallon in Denver this morning....we still have 19 days left before the election.

When I predicted the fall in price...it was because I was thinking conspiracy theory...not economic ruin. So I was wrong about the reason, but not the price. I did predict economic ruin 8 years ago when Bush was elected so that's one I got right.

2 and half weeks to go until election day....I wonder how low gas will go? I'm thinking about $2.80 now. We will see.
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Posted by Bart Freese (+927) 13 years ago
I try to stay away from conspiracy theories, but then again . . . . . .
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Posted by Kyle L. Varnell (+3747) 13 years ago
It was $2.99 in at a Kent ARCO today. Haven't seen it that low in God knows how long.
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Posted by Cris Hrabak (+62) 13 years ago
Guess I am driving thru Kent on the way home to Marysville from Seattle tongiht!!
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Posted by Vicky Strom (+126) 13 years ago
I saw $2.59 for regular unleaded (87 octane) here in Houston this morning!
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Posted by howdy (+4945) 13 years ago
What's really amazing is that we are all thinking of $2.90 as being so cheap.....
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Posted by David Schott (+17158) 13 years ago
I paid $3.479 for 87 octane regular unleaded in Bellevue, WA, on Tuesday night. I feel cheated.

I did pass by a Chevron that wanted $3.399 earlier in the evening but I couldn't stop for gas at the time. I suspect the Shell station I stopped at was one of the more expensive choices, but I put 18.25 gallons in a 20 gallon tank and when you only get 12mpg... well, I could have run out before I got back to a cheaper location.
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Posted by Chuck Schott (+1286) 13 years ago
It hit $2.99 in Billings yeaterday, so I was wrong when I said we won't see gas below $3.00 again. I'm going for $2.75 now.
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Posted by Kayce Bostick (+10) 13 years ago
$2.69 in Houston yesterday!!!
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Posted by athome (+366) 13 years ago
Historically, gas runs about 3% the price of a barrel of crude.
Since the run-up, it has been closer to 4%. So we're getting shafted on margins there.

If it resets somewhat to say 3.5% and there is usually a 7-10 day lag on gas prices to oil prices. Oil's low this week was around $70.

Theoretically, with that figure, sometime in the next week or two, we should see gas around $2.50
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Posted by Hal Neumann (+9958) 13 years ago
I hear it's down to $5.87 here. I haven't fueled up yet since the fuel barge came in, so I don't know for sure that's true. The barge with our winter supplies got in last night, tomorrow we'll run down to the docks and cart the groceries home - if I think of it, I'll stop and see for sure what gas is going for.

But whatever it is now is what it will be on Election Day as the price won't change until the shipment arrives in May.

I'm not sure what diesel is going for - but I hear that the electric co-op paid 50% more for diesel to run the generators than they did last year. We just got billed under the new rate and we now pay more for the fuel-surcharge than we do for the electricity
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Posted by Linda L. (+76) 13 years ago
What would it be like if, for one day, it was FREEE???!!! Oh the lines!!!!!
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
$2.37 in Denver this morning....4 days until the price starts going back up. Don't buy that SUV yet!
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Posted by Bart Freese (+927) 13 years ago
I'm watching this with great interest.
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Posted by ABC (+382) 13 years ago
If the Republicans really wanted to steal the election, they would pay gas stations to offer free gas on election day; giving the dems a dilemma of which line to wait in.

ABC
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Posted by Bob Netherton (+1882) 13 years ago
Exxon/Mobile again posted record profits the past quarter.
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
Well the big day is finally here, and just as I predicted the price of gas has dropped significantly. It was over $4.00 3 months ago when I started this thread...McCain didn't have a chance in hell to win. Then the price dropped by almost $2.00 a gallon, and suddenly McCain has a "chance."

Here were the predictions....

jessiker $3.14
Chuck S. $3.50
Rick K. $3.39
Gunnar E. $4.05
Major Pain $5.00
Steve C. $3.25 to $5.40
MULE TRAIN $2.92

Price in Denver this morning...$2.17!!!!
What was the price in Miles City today?
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Posted by Kyle L. Varnell (+3747) 13 years ago
Price in Kent, Wa. - $2.30

If we didn't have to pay the 40 cents tax for supposedly "Traffic Congestion" that's gotten us nothing we could conceivably be under $2 bucks.

Who would've guessed?
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Posted by Bob L. (+5096) 13 years ago
Nice job, Mule.
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Posted by Little Chick (+65) 13 years ago
Yesterday in Miles City it was $2.39/gal but I haven't been out today so not sure if it changed overnight or not. I voted a week ago and my husband voted this morning, he was first to vote at our polling location today.
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Posted by Mark (+35) 13 years ago
The first time I voted, last week, it was 2.49. Today, when I vote again, it will be 2.39.
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Posted by Vicky Strom (+126) 13 years ago
$1.89 in Houston this morning!
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Posted by Cory Cutting (+1274) 13 years ago
$2.17 down the street in Aurora, CO. If it gets below $2 I'm going to go crazy! So how long ago was it since gas was below $2 nationwide?
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Posted by ABC (+382) 13 years ago
Just saw M&H..$2.35

ABC
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Posted by Mark (+35) 13 years ago
Yep, just voted, again, and went to fill up my tank. $2.35 here in Miles.

Maybe if I wait to fill up my jeep this evening, and vote again, it will be even lower!
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Posted by mule train (+1057) 13 years ago
keep voting Mark...Eric needs all the votes he can get for c.c.!
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Posted by Mark (+35) 13 years ago
Sorry Mule, Jack is way more entertaining...
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Posted by Bob Netherton (+1882) 13 years ago
$2.19 in Missoula today.
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Posted by Cassie (Opp-Kercheval) Walton (+40) 13 years ago
$1.98 Here in Indiana this morning...dropped 13 cents overnight!!! My husband WANTS his TRUCK back !!! He had to trade it in 9 months ago
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Posted by ABC (+382) 13 years ago
Dropped 10 cents today.

At M&H it is now $2.25.

ABC
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Posted by M G (+195) 13 years ago
Mule Train, You original predicted gas prices 3 months after the election to be $3.84. Are you sticking to that or do you have a new prediction?

Any one else have a prediction for 3 months from now?
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Posted by Barb Holcomb (+408) 13 years ago
$1.87 in Lampassas, TX
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