Posted by tom regan (+1559) 7 months ago


Trump is more concerned about the stock market than a public health emergency.

I guess being President is more than golfing, making bad trade deals, hating immigrants, and jacking up the national debt with corporate tax cuts. Who knew?

Trump is the most corrupt, incompetent, and inept President in the history of our country.
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+14865) 7 months ago
To answer Trump's question, "what a-hole is in charge of this?"...............WHITE-HAIRED GUY!!!

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Posted by Bob Netherton III (+2770) 7 months ago
The first sentence I thought of was 'You're doing a great job, Brownie'.
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+14865) 6 months ago
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Posted by Bob Netherton III (+2770) 6 months ago
Enough with the joking around! It is apparent this will be a serious pandemic.

Citizens of the U.S. need to become familiar with the symptoms of Coronavirus.

These symptoms include:

1. Mild to severe fever

2. Upper respiratory symptoms such as sinus congestion and sore throat

3. Generalized muscle aches and pains - similar to influenza

4. Possible pneumonia

5. Mild diarrhea and abdominal discomfort

6. The urge to shove a wedge of lime into your beer


You're welcome
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Posted by Richard Bonine, Jr. (+14303) 6 months ago
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Posted by Bob Netherton III (+2770) 6 months ago
Thanks for clarifying, Richard.
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Posted by Barb Holcomb (+404) 6 months ago
Wash your hands, sneeze/cough into your sleeve, don't shake hands, wipe off grocery carts, before you use them, wear gloves/mittens to open doors, press elevator buttons, etc. It's the same precautions people should use against the flu or any other virus.

Cheers,
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Posted by Dave Roberts (+1389) 6 months ago
With all respect to the General- Mayo is currently still big on handshakes, though they often promptly wash their hand after and *never* touch their faces with bare fingers

Really curious thing to be there (Rochester, we just left) and witness some of the folks / nationalities and how the Clinic handles them

Elevator etiquette is a dead giveaway of circumstances where one should wash their hands as soon as possible
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Posted by Barb Holcomb (+404) 6 months ago
Dave - Interesting and sorry you have to go to Mayo. Whenever I have a cold or allergies I do elbow bumps. I just tell the person when they hold out their hand that I have some congestion and don't want to spread anything, but I'm happy to bump elbows. They usually laugh and bump. This has worked in several countries as well as here. Yeah - the elevator is a Petri dish.

Cheers,
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Posted by Dave Roberts (+1389) 6 months ago
It seems like the only way local Billings outfits would've found that I had CTEPH was via autopsy (if then--) so the trip to Rochester paid off in spades no matter how long and surreal it was and pretty much still is

Considering how hard a common cold has hit me over 7+ years of this, I kind of feel justified in "babying out" when I got head colds and they dropped me like a ton of bricks, and have little doubt that COVID-19 would take me out in nothing flat so I'm obsessing preventative measures right now
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 6 months ago
Sorry to hear that, Dave.
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+14865) 6 months ago
I love the Orange Dotard's address to the nation last night. "It's the EU's fault!"

That sure settled down Wall Street as the markets continue to spiral downward today.

The three largest COVID-19 clusters are Seattle, San Francisco, and NYC. Seattle and San Francisco have extensive dealings with Chinese businesses, and NYC is the financial capital of the world. No, Donny Dufus, it came from China.



[Edited by Gunnar Emilsson (3/12/2020 2:24:26 PM)]
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+14865) 6 months ago
Excellent op-ed piece by Paul Krugman on why Trump is such a colossal failure.

https://www.nytimes.com/2...sContainer

I love how his travel ban list of countries conveniently omits countries where he owns a hotel or golf course.
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 6 months ago
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 6 months ago
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Posted by Robert Martelle (+402) 6 months ago
Governor Bullock issued the following this afternoon. It closes all Public K-12 schools for two weeks.

TO: The People of the State of Montana; all officers and agencies of the State of Montana
FROM: Governor Steve Bullock
DATE: March 15, 2020
RE: Directive implementing Executive Orders 2-2020 and 3-2020 and providing for
measures to combat the spread of COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus
Executive Orders 2-2020 and 3-2020 declare that a state of emergency exists in Montana due to the
global outbreak of COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus.
In accordance with the authority vested in me under the Constitution, Article VI, Sections 4 and 13,
and the laws of the State of Montana, Title 10, Chapter 3 and Title 50, Chapter 1, MCA, and other
applicable provisions of the Constitution and Montana Law, I hereby direct the following measures
be in place in the State of Montana effective immediately:
1. School Closure
• All non-residential public schools in Montana are closed through March 27, 2020.
• All eligible schools will continue to receive all state payments under the school funding
formula, including per person ANB funding, as budgeted and appropriated by the Montana
legislature.
• During this time, schools will engage in planning to provide:
o arrangements to provide free meals to students who need them, pursuant to a waiver
obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture.
o all other matters and services that students need in the event of future or ongoing
closure.
• The state will work with schools during this period and evaluate and announce next steps.
Authorities: Section 10-3-104, MCA; §§ 50-1-202, -203. -204, MCA; 37 A.G. Op. 132 (1978);
Executive Orders 2-2020 and 3-2020; Montana Constitution, Art. VI, Sections 4 and 13; §§ 10-3-
103, -302, and -305, MCA; and all other applicable provisions of state and federal law.
2. Nursing Homes
• Visitation is suspended for all visitors and non-essential healthcare providers, except as for
certain compassionate care situations (e.g., end of life).
• The State of Montana adopts the guidance and procedures provided by the Centers for
Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) in the March 13, 2020, memorandum entitled
“Guidance for Infection Control and Prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in
Nursing Homes (REVISED)” accessible at https://www.cms.gov/files/document/qso-20-14-
nh-revised.pdf and provided with this Directive. This specifically includes the “Additional
Guidance” procedures provided on pages 3-4 (e.g., cancellation of group activities and active
screening of staff and residents).
• For essential visitation (e.g., end of life) the following screening must occur:
o Signs or symptoms of a respiratory infection, such as fever, cough, shortness of
breath, or sore throat.
o In the last 14 days, contact with someone with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19,
under investigation for COVID-19, or ill with respiratory illness.
o International travel within the last 14 days to countries with sustained community
transmission.
o Domestic travel in the last 14 days to areas with sustained community transmission.
o Residing in a community where community-based spread of COVID-19 is occurring.
Authorities: Section 10-3-104, MCA; Executive Orders 2-2020 and 3-2020; Montana Constitution,
Art. VI, Sections 4 and 13; §§ 10-3-103, -302, and -305, MCA; §§ 50-1-202, -203. -204, MCA; and
all other applicable provisions of state and federal law.
3. Public Guidance Regarding Social Distancing
The Governor, in consultation with public health authorities, strongly recommends the following
guidance:
• Limiting all gatherings, especially those gatherings of more than 50 people.
o Organizers should refrain from planning new gatherings and cancel existing
gatherings.
o Individuals should refrain from attending.
• Persons age 60 or older should not participate in any gatherings, especially those gatherings
of more than 20 people.
• Persons who are immunocompromised or with chronic health conditions should not
participate in any gatherings, especially those over 20 people.
• Parents should avoid, if possible, placing children for childcare with grandparents, family
members, friends, or providers over the age of 60 or immunocompromised persons.
4. Transportation
• The limited waivers on motor carriers provided in the Federal Motor Carrier Safety
Administration’s (FMCSA) Emergency Declaration No. 2020-002 are adopted and in effect
in Montana and run concurrent to the federal declaration and its limitations, which increases
the legal weight limits by 10 percent for commercial vehicles to provide supplies to help
support response to the emergency.
• The FMCSA declaration is accessible at:
https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/sites/fmcsa.dot.gov/files/2020-
03/FMCSA%20Emergency%20Declaration%203.13.20.pdf
Authorities: Section 10-3-104, MCA; § 61-10-111, MCA; Executive Orders 2-2020 and 3-2020;
Montana Constitution, Art. VI, Section 4; and all other applicable provisions of state and federal law.
5. National Guard Resources
• As provided in the March 14, 2020, Directive implementing Executive Orders 2-2020 and 3-
2020, the resources and operational capabilities of the Montana National Guard are available
to respond as necessary and at the Governor’s direction. The Adjutant General is authorized
to place members of the Montana National Guard on State Active Duty status.
Authorities: Sections 10-3-104 and -305, MCA; Executive Orders 2-2020 and 3-2020; Montana
Constitution, Art. VI, Sections 4 and 13; §§ 10-3-103 and -302, MCA; and all other applicable
provisions of state and federal law.
6. Limitations
• This Directive is effective immediately and expires at the end of the declared state of
emergency in Executive Orders 2-2020 and 3-2020.
• This Directive shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the
availability of appropriations.
• This Directive is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or
procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the state of Montana, its
departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 6 months ago
Reply to Robert Martelle (#379231)
My kids' schools here in Washington state started out being closed "until 3/27" but within a day that turned into "until 4/24". Don't be shocked if Montana's schools wind up being closed beyond 3/27.
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Posted by Amorette Allison (+10503) 6 months ago
I went to school at my usual 7:30 in case someone didn't get the message. EVERYONE did. We got a few calls on food distribution, will there be homework and one parent saying, "Two weeks? Really? We're heading to the farm." Spring in Montana. Not all the kids will be sitting around playing video games.
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Posted by Don Birkholz (+1178) 6 months ago
This is the best site I have found for tracking coronavirus infections and deaths: https://www.worldometers....ountry/us/ The listing includes all US states, and ranking, and also some other countries if you scroll down (Italy- which has around 12% of "known" infections dying.)
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Posted by miles town native (+46) 6 months ago
I thought on Friday, March 20,2020 at 8 p.m. all bars, restaurants, movie theaters, gyms and other gathering places were shut down to inside customers by a Governor's order, that included social distancing and no public gathering. Then why would a Miles City (non-restaurant) business have a sale with out of town sales representatives present and serve a free dine-in lunch to customers? Some could interpret that as a total disregard for the well being of this community, state and nation!
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Posted by Shu Pius (+1769) 6 months ago
Other than taking the recommended precautions in order to to prevent the spread and get through this pandemic, my only other thought is this: I wish Miles City's own Dr. Hilleman was still alive today! He'd likely get us the vaccine so we could get through this more quickly.

I know a vaccine is currently being worked on but it is, of course, in the testing stages now and won't be ready for public distribution anytime soon.
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Posted by Don Birkholz (+1178) 6 months ago
In my link a few posts earlier, if you scroll down to Montana and then go horizontal across the page to the (source), you will get the cases per county. Gallatin leads with 10 infections.
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Posted by Barb Holcomb (+404) 6 months ago
Shu

Perhaps Dr Hilleman could develop a vaccine. Unfortunately, he would have to go through the same processes today's scientists are going through so it's unlikely it would be any faster. There are several vaccine candidates in the works. There are also treatment protocols being researched. I believe the FDA is poised to move quickly once we have potentially viable solutions for either prevention or treatment.

Cheers!
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+14865) 6 months ago
Four Senate Republicans (one of them being Leningrad Lindsey) are holding up passage of the COVID 19 relief package because they are afraid that once people who have been laid off get a check from the government to pay for their rent/mortgage, they are not going to want to go back to work.

That said, Democrats don't have any reason to be proud, either. Another reason why this bill has been a certain faction of the Democratic senators has been demanding that climate change issues be addressed as part of the package.

These idiots need to put their ideological difference aside, and let this measure pass and get enacted. True, there were some excellent changes, such as not allowing Trump to control a half a billion dollars bailout to corporations such as the resort and hotel industry but now is the time to just pass it as the end of the month is here and rent is due.
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Posted by Bridgier (+8441) 6 months ago
I'd like to see a cite on the democrats holding the bill up over climate change issues - all the reporting I can find only seems to mention the Republicans.
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Posted by Hanson (+1099) 6 months ago
Like Bridgier, I would like to see the authority for comments that Democrats are holding up the stimulus package on climate change issues. The only support for that position that I am aware of is in a couple of speeches by Moscow Mitch McConnel.
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 5 months ago
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Posted by Richard Bonine, Jr. (+14303) 5 months ago
The American Medical Association has weighed in on Trump's Corona strategy: The Allergists were in favor of scratching it, but the Dermatologists advised not to make any rash moves.

The Gastroenterologists had sort of a gut feeling about it, but the Neurologists thought the Administration had a lot of nerve. Meanwhile, Obstetricians felt certain everyone was laboring under a misconception, while the Ophthalmologists considered the idea shortsighted. Pathologists yelled, "Over my dead body!" while the Pediatricians said, "Oh, grow up!”

The Psychiatrists thought the whole idea was madness, while the Radiologists could see right through it. Surgeons decided to wash their hands of the whole thing and the Internists claimed it would indeed be a bitter pill to swallow.

The Plastic Surgeons opined that this proposal would "put a whole new face on the matter.” The Podiatrists thought it was a step forward, but the Urologists were pissed off at the whole idea. Anesthesiologists thought the whole idea was a gas, and those lofty Cardiologists didn’t have the heart to say no.

In the end, the Proctologists won out, leaving the entire decision up to the assholes in Washington.
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+14865) 5 months ago
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 5 months ago
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+14865) 5 months ago
This is a great read on what a total failure Trump is.

https://www.theatlantic.c...es/609532/
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Posted by Richard Bonine, Jr. (+14303) 5 months ago
Worth your time. I’m tired of living according to the fear and greed of others. It’s time to go back to work.

https://www.msn.com/en-us...WgnH_iqY8Y
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Posted by Bridgier (+8441) 5 months ago
Go back to work were? I'm not going out to any sort of restaurant, hair dresser, etc for the forseeable future, and I'm probably going to be expected to work from home until at least the end of july, if not longer.

Absent an actual testing regime to know where we're at, i'll bet we're right back in lockdown once the second wave hits.
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Posted by Richard Bonine, Jr. (+14303) 5 months ago
If you believe in science, it’s what we should be doing. Watch the link.
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 5 months ago
Reply to Richard Bonine, Jr. (#379488)
These doctors disagree with Dr. Erickson. So do I.

https://www.kget.com/heal...n-society/

One thing Dr. Erickson tried to say was that because 39% of the people tested in New York tested positive you can extrapolate that rate to the entire state population. His logic would be sound if they were testing a random sample of people, but the people who are being tested are the ones who are MOST LIKELY to be infected. In my opinion he is not using sound logic.

Also, I am sheltering at home but in no way do I consider myself to be quarantined or locked into my home. He's using hyperbole to describe sheltering in place and when he does such things he comes off as having an agenda.
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 5 months ago
Here you go, more of Dr. Erickson who is a co-owner of Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield. You have to watch this from 11:11 and tell me that Dr. Erickson isn't a little...

https://youtu.be/zb6j7o1pLBw?t=671
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Posted by Richard Bonine, Jr. (+14303) 5 months ago
... isn’t a little what. It’s your sentence, which I’m not going to finish. I think he is pretty realistic.

I’ve got 23 miles of fence to build and 200 vegetation transects to monitor before the snow flies in October. This being locked down is killing me. It’s time to go back to work.
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 5 months ago
Reply to Richard Bonine, Jr. (#379491)
Unprofessional to put it politely. Did you watch the good doctor say he had been to 3 different stores in search of ammo and that his Facebook friends are saying it's time to break out the AKs and get violent? That is not a man I wish to be taking advice from.
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Posted by ----- (+14303) 5 months ago
Perhaps you should work on your ability to chew meat and spit out bones.

I watched the portion of the video you mentioned. My reaction is so what. Finding ammo is difficult for some calibers. Realistic true statement. If you’re on Facebook, it’s highly likely you will have some crazy people in your friends list. So what. Not picking through a discussion to find provoking thoughts because a guy has friends with armament no civilian really needs, is absurd. Pollyanna progressivism will never win and is killing us. Listening to challenging points of view is how we become better thinkers.

I think the abundance of caution and fear currently being imposed on us is weakening our immune systems and making us more vulnerable. It’s increasing levels of depression, which weakens our immune system. We are a highly social species that needs to have physical contact. The current strategy for control, flys in the face of our biology.

I hope we come out of this mess with changed values. We are too reliant on big pharma and big agricultural. We need to quit worshipping the golden calf of ROI and go back to a simpler way of life, where we focus on local food, friends and family and community fellowship. Swapping germs 🦠 with people at the local pool hall is really good medicine. And if some bug infects all at least we die happy.
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 5 months ago
Reply to ----- (#379496)
Richard, the whole premise of Erickson's press conference -- that a larger percentage of Americans have been infected with Coronavirus and therefore the death rate is very low -- was based on bad science. The man sat there in front of God and everyone and said that you can take the existing testing data and extrapolate that to the entire population. That is just flat out wrong. That is flat out bad science. You said that if I believe in science... and I do... and that is not good science. Period.

Dr. Erickson's motive for hosting his press conference and making his case for ending shelter at home is based on bad science.

And his right wing nut job rant at the end about people are gonna get their guns was extraordinarily unprofessional. The guy sitting next to him even starts to look uncomfortable as he squirms in his chair ala Dr. Birx while Trump is promoting Lysol and UV light injections.
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Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+14865) 5 months ago
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Posted by Earl Bennett (+832) 5 months ago
Reply to ----- (#379496)
I think the shelter in place rules can be removed in some places. Others it might be best not to. The thing is we need to be able to test so we can see when a change is occurring. We should be able to go to church, get a haircut, and drink a beer here RIGHT now. if we get a increase in cases we can always back down. Is it Switzerland that is going for herd immunity?
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Posted by Dave Roberts (+1389) 5 months ago
Custer County still has no cases, in spite of the 14- plates I've seen in my very few outings in Billings. Your best best is to shop and buy local and avoid coming to Billings if at all possible. It will no doubt be easier to recover from a "curve" that has an apex of 0
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 4 months ago
CNN.COM: The Fox News/MSNBC mirror: Chris Hayes debunks video as Tucker Carlson hypes it

At the top of his prime time show Tuesday night, Tucker Carlson hyped a video featuring two California doctors who downplayed the threat of the coronavirus. The doctors, Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi, are the co-owners of an urgent care clinic in Bakersfield. They went viral in the last few days for delivering a presentation last week in which they suggested the mortality rate of Covid-19 is similar to the flu.

The arguments the doctors put forward have been widely criticized. The American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine said in a joint statement that they "emphatically condemn the recent opinions released" by Erickson and Massihi. And YouTube removed the video for violating its community guidelines, which have been strengthened to prevent coronavirus misinformation from spreading rampantly on the platform.

But Carlson promoted their claims anyway. In fact, the Fox News host argued that "what YouTube just did" by removing the video will be seen "as a turning point in the way we liven this country." He declared that YouTube and Google "have now officially banned dissent."

Over on MSNBC, at the same time Carlson was spotlighting the claims from the doctors, Chris Hayes was working to debunk them. Characterizing Fox News as comprised of "coronavirus truthers," Hayes quoted University of Washington biologist Dr. Carl Bergstrom who said the doctors had "used methods that are ludicrous to get results that are completely implausible." Hayes also highlighted the blatant hypocrisy in Fox's top hosts calling for people to return to work when Fox's own executives have instructed the network's staff to work from home.

It was another perfect case study in the choose-your-own-news phenomenon that has come to define the media in the last few years. It's not just that Hayes and Carlson were offering different viewpoints to their audiences. The two shows were mirror images of each other. What Carlson said, Hayes debunked. But, stuck in their bubble, Carlson's audience will likely not see the information Hayes outlined.

...
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 4 months ago
AlterNet.org: A pair of doctors just proved that medical training doesn’t keep you from being amazingly ignorant

...

In this single press conference, the urgent care doctors—Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi—managed to present not only horrendous distortions of the data, but to make additional arguments that are already being amplified by the media and turned into talking points for the right.

...

But really it’s the numbers where these two excel, and it’s the numbers that are getting unwarranted press. See if you can spot the issue with this statement:

“In Kern County, we’ve tested 5,213 people and we have 340 positive COVID cases. Well, that’s 6.5% of the population, “ said Erickson. If you haven’t spotted the problem already, he went on: “So if you look at California—these numbers are from yesterday—we have 33,865 COVID cases out of a total of 280,900 total tested; that’s 12% of Californians were positive for COVID.” But Erickson wasn’t done. “We’ve seen 1,227 deaths in the state of California with a possible incidents or prevalence of 4.7 million,” said Erickson. “That means you have a 0.03 chance of dying from COVID-19 in the state of California.”

It’s hard to know where to begin. What Erickson has done in his astounding demonstration of basic mathematical ignorance is to take the percentage of positive tests in the state and equate that with the number of people who have the disease. Many media outlets have treated statements from this amazing press event as if Erickson and Massihi had conducted over 5,000 tests. That’s not what they’re saying. They’re just quoting the number of existing tests and positive results at a time when almost all of those tests have taken place on patients demonstrating strong symptoms.

It’s as if you went into the cancer ward at Johns Hopkins and determined that 12% of Americans have lymphoma. Then Erickson has divided the number of deaths across the state of California, and divided by 12% of the entire state population to come up with a 0.03% case fatality rate. So … everyone back to work! This thing is no big deal!

Even more amazingly, this is Erickson’s next sentence: “I also wanted to mention that 96% of people in California who get COVID recover.” What happens to the other 4%? It’s apparently impossible to know.

Right now in New York City, 0.15% of the total population is already dead from COVID-19. Not 0.15% of those with symptoms. Not 0.15% of those infected. 0.15% of everybody in New York City. Is dead. Right now. Because of this disease.

And while New York certainly waited too long to lock down, the city’s response to the outbreak once it was underway has been very good when it comes to preparing additional medical facilities and making sure that every COVID-19 patient—along with patients for every other kind of serious illness—still had a bed, an ICU, or a ventilator when needed. Those numbers in New York City are not there because people are getting good treatment. The numbers are there in spite of what has proven year in and year out to be among the best healthcare delivery systems in the nation.

Despite the staggering examples of innumeracy and pure misdirection in the statements from Erickson, both social media and national media have been repeating both the “12% infection rate” and “0.03% death rate” as if they provide some value to the national conversation. They don’t. In fact, they’re so actively harmful that they are a genuine threat.

So are Erickson and Massihi. If you do need to go to an urgent care, don’t make it Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield, California. The doctors there clearly either weren’t paying attention during their required statistics courses or are deliberately misrepresenting information. Either way, at this moment they’re doing immense damage.
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Posted by Robert Martelle (+402) 4 months ago
Custer County just announced its first case. An asymptomatic out of state essential worker tested positive. Because the individual is not a Montana resident, it may not be included in the "official" count. But, it does show that we are not immune out here in the boondocks. As they said on NYPD Blue, "be careful out there".
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 4 months ago
Here's a sad tale. Let's hope for a viable Coronavirus vaccine.

From Yale Epidemiologist, Jonathan Smith:

"As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not being articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from that peer review.

Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.

This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members / very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.

You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise.

You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules.

My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to just ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures , my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty."

By Jonahan Smith, a lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University School of Public Health. His research focuses on infectious disease transmission dynamics.

https://www.wbur.org/cogn...than-smith
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Posted by tom regan (+1559) 4 months ago
The use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 infection actually increases your chances of dying from the disease. I'm sure Trump will call this more fake new. And there is no evidence that it prevents infection.

https://www.forbes.com/si...9d5b243a50

[Edited by tom regan (5/22/2020 11:18:14 AM)]
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Posted by Hanson (+1099) 4 months ago
Of course there is no independent evidence that Trump has been taking hydroxychloroquine. There is only his claim that he has been taking it. Talk about fake news. Trump’s claim is just another lie by the liar in chief.
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Posted by David Schott (+15318) 4 months ago
Here's some interesting estimates recently released by the CDC. Richard should like these numbers.

CDC.GOV: COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios
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