Nate Silver's stats website:

http://projects.fivethirt...ecast/#now

As of now ...

As of this moment ...


http://projects.fivethirt...ecast/#now

Who will win the Presidency? Paul Ryan. Don't believe me? Read your constitution.

The POTUS has the power to pardon, Richard. It won't get as far as Ryan.

My thought is nobody gets to 270 electoral votes. HRC has never been above 48%. Trump is tanking and there are representatives who have stated they won't vote for Trump in the electoral college. Gary Johnson could win UT and/or NM. If nobody gets to 270 the election goes to the house. They aren't going to pick HRC or Trump. They would pick Ryan or maybe RMoney.

I think that's unlikely Richard.

In 1992, Bill Clinton won 370 electoral votes with only 43% of the popular vote. If I remember correctly, Ross Perot earned about 18% of the popular vote but won exactly -0- electoral votes.

Hillary needs the statues quo to continue for her to win. Trump needs another attack on America or a financial catastrophe to win. I think he will get it, and that sucks.

murica is great, cause murica is good.

I really don't like Arkansas anymore. I wonder if Hillary can pick a banjo, I bet bill can.

I think Hillary will win (I've thought that since she was still "undecided" on whether to run) but Trump could be just one sincere apology from proving me wrong.

If he would just take some advice from people and quit being such a blowhard, and apologize to the Gold Star people and admit he was a bonehead with those remarks, his popularity would soar while Hillary continues to get bogged down by her scandals and her overall personality.

But, he's not likely to do any of the things I mentioned. Therefore I think Hillary will keep presenting herself as cool, calm, collected and "in charge" (with help from Obama) and will walk off with it.

The second week of November, the Republicans will start conducting the most diligent search in the history of the world for a candidate for 2020 who won't screw it up the way the class of 2016 did. Jeez you'd think they'd learn some lessons after the 2012 and 2008 debacles.

I sorta agree with your post, but I'm trying to square this:

while Hillary continues to get bogged down by her scandals and her overall personality.

With this:

Therefore I think Hillary will keep presenting herself as cool, calm, collected

Personally, I could think of NO BETTER personality for our head of state. As for the scandals thing, I've been hearing about these terrible no-good horrible things she's done for the last 22 years, and in the end, nothing has ever come of them. Could they all simply be the products of the same republican party that's given us Donald Trump as their nominee?

Trump will win. Its all in the math.

There will be 225 million eligible voters this election.

30 percent of those voters are old uneducated white people. Very slow, ignorant people. Guys like gng and SD.

100 percent of them will show up at the polls, and 80 percent vote for Trump. The rest will vote for Gary Johnson.

The remaining 70% of voters, only 30% of them will show up at the polls. They will probably vote 60% Hillary, 35% Trump, 5% other.

Trump: (225 M)(.3)(.8) + (225 M)(.7)(.3)(.35) = 70 million

Hillary: (225 M)(.7)(.3)(.65) = 30 million

Trump by a landslide.

You can't argue with math.

A tear comes to my eye when I witness the reverence Gunnar bestows upon his fellow Trump supporters.

Gunnar hasn't factored in voter fraud.

Because the courts have been overturning Voter ID laws throughout the nation, many of us will be voting 10 or more times.

Damn activist judges.

As of today ...






http://projects.fivethirt...ecast/#now

Gunnar,
We don't use popular vote in this country. Your math is somewhat irrelevant.

I sorta agree with your post, but I'm trying to square this:

while Hillary continues to get bogged down by her scandals and her overall personality.

With this:

Therefore I think Hillary will keep presenting herself as cool, calm, collected

The operative words are "presenting herself as." It doesn't mean she really is all those things.

Why Trump is right and the Democrats are wrong.

http://www.rollingstone.c...ty-w433295

Who would have thought Rolling Stone would get it?

That's great Gunnar! NOW IF HE COULD ONLY QUIT ACTING LIKE A TOTAL DOUCHE, HE MIGHT HAVE SOMETHING HERE!

and to quote Nate Silver, whose projections the webmaster has been posting here:

"What you all seem to neglect is that this is ALL PART OF TRUMP’S PLAN. Lull your opponent into a false sense of security. Let her lead by 9 percentage points in August. Then after Labor Day? BAM! Turn on your master persuader skills. Result: Landslide."

Nate Silver and I are thinking the same thing.

“The Corner - The One And Only: Trump’s Map”
--Rich Lowry
THE NATIONAL REVIEW
August 10, 2016
http://www.nationalreview...ust10Lowry

The Amish don't participate in polls, obviously, as they don't have phones. But they are a significant part of the electorate in Pennsylvania and Ohio. And they will vote Trump.

Fear not, fellow Trump supporters. Our man is heading to the White House.

Kelly. You need to stick this post in the thread involving the difference between republicans and democrats.

Next US President betting odds – Trump drifts to 11/4 as punters abandon presidential hopeful
--Leigh Copson
POLITICAL BETTING
August 11, 2016
http://www.bettingpro.com...0608-0012/

Election Betting Odds
--Maxim Lott and John Stossel
https://electionbettingodds.com/

Gunnar Emilsson wrote:

The Amish don't participate in polls, obviously, as they don't have phones.

And that in a nutshell is why the data is flawed. The pollsters are only talking to folks with landlines. I haven't had a landline in five years and I don't know any milenialls who have one. There are several groups outside of these polls for which there is no data. I think HRC being so far ahead now is a problem when the poll that matters finally happens.

[Edited by Richard Bonine, Jr. (8/14/2016 8:14:23 PM)]

I've been getting calls on my cell from pollsters at the Pew Trust and from in-state media organizations. Irritates the heck out of me.

Hmm... interesting. Maybe they know better than to call me.

Who responds to political polls and do they do so honestly?

I've thought, "Hey if I say I'm voting for (my candidate) and (my candidate) wins the poll won't that just inspire the opposition's supporters to get out and vote more or inspire the opposition to invest more in advertising in my area, etc.?" So maybe I should say I'm voting for (not my candidate) and that will cause them to become complacent. Hmmmm.

Trump used to recite current poll numbers during his rallies. Apparent he put plenty of stock in them. Not so much now. I'm guessing he's concerned that the Amish are being left out.

Sent to me by my friend from Sweden:

I bet George Soros wins, unless trump wins that is.

George Soros introduced Bill Clinton to gunsngold's Ex.

I was fortunate enough to be in Miles City Monday night, and is my habit, immediately went into the Montana for a cold one. While chatting at the bar with the local yahoos, I was somewhat surprised to find belligerence directed towards me when I proclaimed my support for Trump. What has happened to our fair cow town? Hillary supporters are everywhere!

A vote for Hillary is a vote for an old white male with money.

These George Soros revelations are astounding, and should bring down the democratic Zionist movement. These leaked e-mails prove Trump and David duke 100% correct. Hillary is bought by an ex-Nazi currency manipulator.

To everyone that said I was a conspiracy theorist. TOLD YOU SO!


George Soros is the democratic candidate, hiding behind Hillary's skirt.

[Edited by gunsngold (8/18/2016 12:29:21 PM)]

Pantsuit.Possibly altered to conceal adult diapers.

Well if anyone has authority about adult diapers, it has to be you ZZZzz.

gunsngold wrote:

A vote for Hillary is a vote for an old white male with money.

These George Soros revelations are astounding, and should bring down the democratic Zionist movement. These leaked e-mails prove Trump and David duke 100% correct. Hillary is bought by an ex-Nazi currency manipulator.

To everyone that said I was a conspiracy theorist. TOLD YOU SO!


George Soros is the democratic candidate, hiding behind Hillary's skirt.

[Edited by gunsngold (8/18/2016 12:29:21 PM)]

All of this BS aside, it doesn't make Trump anymore palatable or electable. We are going to #feeltheJohnson one way or another.

All this BS aside..

Seriously,

These emails show that we have a bought and paid for government and every aspect of our countries governing is being manipulated. This is game changing and complete vindication for the conspiracy truthers out there. This is our "I told you so moment" Don't under estimate this moment, Americans trust of their government is fading quickly.

It's not a reason to vote for Trump.

You may not think so, but many people like it when the person they elect makes the decisions, without having a 3rd party "unelected" official, telling them how to govern. That's what trump will give us, a government that is not for sale to lobbyist.

But lets not digress from the revelations that a Zionist "George Soros" has just proven every right wing conspiracy theorist completely correct.

Didn't Hillary fall and injury her head a few months ago, that would explain the odd behavior and cringing motions she makes when bright lights shine her way.

Down Ballot. That's the interesting question now.

“Trump Has to Choose: Lose Like Dukakis, or Like Goldwater”
--David Frum
THE ATLANTIC
08-19-2016
http://www.theatlantic.co...urce=atlfb

These new George Soros emails are just too damning for the anti-Caucasian, Stalin supporting democrats. I wonder what happens to the culture in America when these revelation set in, when people realize their vote was being circumvented for racial reasons just like the conspiracy theorist racist bigots said.

Even more, when the Rhinos realize how utterly stupid and selfish their money lust has been, hopefully they will hang themselves rather than watching their daughters being given to Muslims as reparations. Rhinos are traitors.

Your logic has been proven "ill" by these emails you Stalin supporting anti-Caucasian bigots.

David Duke Has been proven correct 100%.

David Duke is a putrid kitty vagina.

David Duke is "an American white nationalist, antisemitic conspiracy theorist, Holocaust denier, politician, and former Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Duke

You may not think so, but many people like it when the person they elect makes the decisions, without having a 3rd party "unelected" official, telling them how to govern. That's what trump will give us, a government that is not for sale to lobbyist.

Huh? What are are you talking about? All Trump does is makes "deals". It's the basis of his campaign. He thinks he make better deals than anyone else. The government will be "more for sale" with Trump. Trump will sell to the same big name globalist's as HRC. Our election is nothing more than the illusion of choice.

Do you get all of your "live by" info from wiki Larry?

Yeah, Larry. Why don't you get your facts from the Alex Jones InfoWars website, like the rest of us Trump supporters?

ZZZzz wrote:

Do you get all of your "live by" info from wiki Larry?

What does that even mean?

When they cant refute the message, they take aim at the messenger.

Don't you have a cross to torch, guns?

I am a Christian not an atheist, I'll leave the cross burning to you.

May God be with you.

Hopefully hitlery will suffer a massive life ending event before the election. Just my .02.

So classy.

What would you know about class Bob? Your bad manners and name calling are all over this place.

White supremacists are the classiest of them all.

If you say so.

G and G. If you're not willing to burn a few crosses, your hero, David Duke, is going to be very disappointed with you.

If your not willing to kiss ass, Mr. Soros will be disappointed with you. But we both know you'll pucker up. Just to complete the gay democratic circle jerk.

Anyone remember the late Dennis Green? He was the Minnesota Vikings coach in the late 1990s. His teams would jump to an early lead, then Coach Green's play calling would turn very conservative. Three runs up the middle, punt. Meanwhile, the opposing team would be desperately passing to catch up, and would either make the game really cloase or win at the end.

Hillary Clinton is running a Dennis Green style of campaign. I predict Trump by a narrow margin (I would say by 5 to 4, but that does not exist thanks to the Republican senate).

http://fivethirtyeight.co...e-clinton/

With a Taco Truck on every corner, it will no longer be necessary to call 9 Juan Juan in case of emergency.

This election is going to cost an estimated 16 billion dollars. There has to be a cheaper way to find the worst candidates.

Stick a fork in it ...






http://projects.fivethirt...ecast/#now

Based on yard signs here in Albuquerque, Gary Johnson wins NM. Very few Hillary or Trump signs.

Sounds like Albuquerque is having an Aleppo moment.

How so?

Richard Bonine, Jr. wrote:

How so?

Not sure what Gunnar meant, but as of right now, the odds of Gary Johnson winning New Mexico is 1%.

http://projects.fivethirt...exico/#now

Chance of winning NM:

Clinton: 94.2%
Trump: 4.8%
Johnson: 1.0%

Richard Bonine, Jr. wrote:

How so?

Just a little attempt at some humor here, hence my use of a smiley face.

In case you missed it:

http://www.nytimes.com/20....html?_r=0

followed by:

http://www.nytimes.com/20...oment.html

Here's what the election map looks like if only the common sagebrush lizard voted.

A vote for Hillary is a vote to better equip and arm ISIS.

Hey Gunsngold. Are you sure it wasn't Trump that nailed your ex? He's apparently a very busy fella.

What I find interesting, is that Obama sniffed himself to check for sulfur, but Hillary did not. Hmmmmmmm..............

Hilary is a "Zionist shill banking cartel" member. Sure her last name isn't Rothschild.

Gunsy's conspiracy rhetoric set aside, it sure looks The Donald has the election in the bag.

Conspiracy you say? Ha! WikiLeaks has proven me completely correct. George Soros tells Hillary what to do, she is completely on the take for the wall st lobbyist "zionist" banking firms. She is a "Yes Girl".

This is pretty good..

http://www.nytimes.com/2...line&te=1

gunsngold wrote:

Conspiracy you say? Ha! WikiLeaks has proven me completely correct. George Soros tells Hillary what to do, she is completely on the take for the wall st lobbyist "zionist" banking firms. She is a "Yes Girl".

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, Danny ole boy, but when you post about zionist bankers and the Rothschilds, you are almost certain to be a conspiracy theory wing nut.

This election has been stressful to say the least. One element of the stress I hate is the division it creates between friends. I have very few friends as it is. Annoying folks with my view of the world is an activity I try not to do. I try to be a peaceable individual. As an introvert, I keep most of the 24/7/365 thinking process which goes on in my head to myself. If I have offended you, I am sorry. If what I am going to say offends, you let me apologize now. My dad use to tell me "you'll catch more flies with honey than you will with vinegar". I try daily to be kind and polite, sometimes to my own detriment.

I have honestly, since the primary in June, been on the fence about the general election and for whom I should vote. I supported Sen. Sanders in the primary. For better or worse, I am a stubborn Irish idealist at heart. I tend not to embrace pragmatism until it is clear there is no alternative.
I'm still disappointed with the manner in which Sen. Sanders was cast aside. I do believe the DNC cheated him out of the nomination. IMO, had he been the nominee, we would not have been subjected to all of the crap which has happened between Trump and Clinton. We could have focused on more meaningful issues.

To be honest, I looked for quite awhile at voting in protest by considering a 3rd party candidate. Gary Johnson is a likable guy. I disagree with nearly every solution he has proposed, other than his position on war in the middle east. I think if through the cloud of marijuana haze he could ever find Aleppo, he truly might try to bring the troops home. A candidates' position on war IMO is a MAJOR consideration. I don't want the blood of innocent victims on my hands because my President escalates war in some far-off place in the world. But he has no chance of winning. In New Mexico all he will do is take votes away from Hillary and allow Trump to win the state. If he did ever win, he relies too much on the market economy to do the right thing, when they have never done the right thing without oversight.

For a short time I looked at Jill Stein. While I would agree with many of her thoughts and positions, she is simply not presidential material.
I considered not voting for anyone as my vote might validate what I consider to be a broken system where the views of the poor and downtrodden are not represented.
In the end, I concluded like it or not, protest votes through 3rd parties are not going to be effective until we change to a rank-voter or parliamentarian form of elections.

This morning I decided which way I will vote. I have come to understand this election is ALL about MOMENTUM. It is NOT really about the personalities hoping for our vote.

The question we all must answer is "do we like the general direction we are headed or should we turn the plane completely around". Honestly, I prefer minor course corrections as opposed to something beyond a standard rate turn. I am convinced Mr. Trump would attempt to turn the plane around by making a sharp right turn or maybe a barrel roll and in the process stall the plane in to a tailspin and crash. I really don't wish to endure that sort of ride. He simply isn't an experienced pilot.

IMO, Hillary is a very flawed candidate. Deserved or not, she comes with a lot of baggage and drama. It's honestly extremely frustrating to discern what is true about her activities and what is not. Should she be elected, I have no doubt we are in for 4 years of investigation by the GOP. I have no doubt the GOP will attempt to impeach her. I do not like her cozy ties to big business. She is too much of a war hawk for my tastes. I would prefer someone who was more transparent and trustworthy.

All of that said, as President, she doesn't write legislation, she simply signs it. For all of her faults, she won't impede the momentum and general direction in which the country is headed. She won't disband agencies whom insure we have clean water, clean air, access to public lands, etc. She won't steer us back to 19th century energy technology. She is more likely to consider alternate points of view, freedom of thought and speech. She will support the LGBT community. She will most likely help those who have been displaced by the war we have created, find shelter and a place to be in the world. She will keep the religious fervor contained to "ceremonial deism", rather than actively promote the "Onward Christian Soldiers" crusade mentality against Islam, people of other religious belief, and agnostics, like myself.

And if we can achieve a change in the senate, we can straighten out many of the issues which are holding the 98 percent down and back. We can change the budgetary priorities of this country and focus on issues which will control our future for years to come. She will sign such legislation or face a constituency who will replace her in 1460 days. With Hillary in charge, movement toward the more progressive idealistic goals will continue.

My heart is still with Sen. Sanders. She will, however reluctantly, get my vote. In the end, it's all about momentum.

[Edited by Richard Bonine, Jr. (11/6/2016 1:50:50 PM)]

Exactly.

Perhaps in your delusional state you can self-justify some perverted rational for voting for the most corrupt, evil and pathological individual to ever run for POTUS.

But that won't make you any less of an accomplice in the tidal-wave of crime that is the Clintons.

Adulting is hard, being a WATB is easy.

Nevermind.

[Edited by Richard Bonine, Jr. (11/7/2016 12:57:31 PM)]

Bridgier wrote:

Adulting is hard, being a WATB is easy.

Now that IS funny s**t, Bridgier.

You, talking about "adulting".

Perhaps in your delusional state you can self-justify some perverted rational for voting for the most corrupt, evil and pathological individual to ever run for POTUS.

Well, responding to Richard's detailed and thoughtful post with the above is pretty much the equivalent of filling your Depends with an extra hot and steamy pile because they're not serving your favorite dessert tonight at the rest home. I'll pick Richard's version of adulting over yours, thanks.

Final odds ...





http://projects.fivethirt...-forecast/

Umm... it's early but it's seems like 538 doesn't know what the fukc it's talking about.

Richard Bonine, Jr. wrote:

Umm... it's early but it's seems like 538 doesn't know what the fukc it's talking about.

As of this moment, all projected/called states (as per CNN) are exactly as 538 predicted ... BUT ... kind of seems like that isn't going to hold.

Trump is going to win. Didn't I call this like 6 months ago?

Scrolling back, I see I did two months ago. But I think in one of the earlier primary threads I called it sooner

North Carolina fell, so 538 was wrong about it. So 15 more votes for Trump, 15 less for Hillary. Rest to be determined. Although, Florida doesn't look promising at this point. It may fall too. That would be another 29.

Florida just fell now too. So, kinda seems likely that we'll get to see how Donald Trump runs the country.

My wife and I are already making vacation plans for a 2018 vacation to the Tuscon area for a border wall viewing.

Don't upset the silent majority with new age voodoo and atheism, then you wont get a revolution. Don't try to take guns from law abiding citizens while at the same time opening the borders to let them be broadsided by a culture clash. This was a mandate to drain the swamp of lobbyist, and the pay to play attitude of the leftist revolutionaries loyal to George Soros.

And "I told you so" once again. Leftist seem to have confused "kindness" for "weakness" in their opposition. A fatal mistake made by many "illogical" arm-chair "geo-politicians" in the past.

Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
the band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
and somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
but there is no joy in Mudville — mighty Hillary has struck out.



Now let's get over it and fix this mess.

The house has fallen on her and those bony cankles are sticking out from under the wall. She's finished and no one is rejoicing more than the president's Secrete Service detail.

So has Nate Silver of 538 "I've got all the answers" fame been downgraded to Nate Lead, yet? Inquiring minds want to know. ??

Nate Mud.

Tell us, Republican voters, does it make you proud to know that your "winning" candidate is losing in the popular vote?

It makes me proud to know that there was enough good Americans to help Trump overcome the Democraps, the Establishment RINO Republicans like Paul Ryan, The MEDIA and VOTER FRAUD. Make what you will out of the popular vote.

By the way it is enjoyable kicking you leftists while your down HE HE HE.

Proud to be a loser. It's the Trump way. Donald Trump: "I'm proud that my business lost $916,000,000 in 1995. Losing makes me a winner."

David Schott SUCKS TO BE YOU. I feel your pain and enjoy every moment of it. Give me more!TRUMP for the next 8 years!!!

I'll take that as a, "Yes, I am proud that my losing candidate is still considered a winner. I'll take my 'wins' any way I can get them."

I'll refer to my prior statement about your outlook for the next eight years.

I understand, Sam. I would feel embarrassed and ashamed as well if my candidate was losing in the popular vote but was still considered a "winner".

Go ahead and focus your attention on "the popular vote"... for the next eight years if it makes you feel better. I doubt if it will change any of Trumps policies or your ability to compartmentalize dealing with reality. Your candidate has been defeated.

Atlas, at Long Last, Shrugs!

Our eight-year national nightmare is over!
The Clintons, and their gaggle of lackeys, including BHO, will now
mercifully fade away. There are still enough good and decent people in this country to overcome votes from willfully unproductive, non-contributing parasites, unlawful votes by illegal aliens and other criminals, and all the other voter fraud the DNC could muster.
Good and decent people in this Country are finally fed-up with seedy
Marxists, masquerading as “liberals,” who themselves are neither good, nor
decent, and with their arrogant, lying propagandists in the media.
Like all leftists, the DNC, and their propaganda arm at our “news media,”
spend too much time reading their own press releases! “Pollsters,” working for the leftist media, who are working for the DNC, get paid to tell their bosses what they want to hear, and so they do, and did! We’ve all been told for months, by the media, that there is no point in having an election at all, that their dimpled-darling, HRC, just could not lose! Pollsters, and their leftist bosses in the media, are all sleazy, prevaricating criminals, masquerading as “journalists,” and they consistently make the mistake of believing their own lies.
We all see that now! Our blessed Republic has been saved from brutal Marxists, at least for now!

The 2008 version of me would have loved what happened last night.
I remember being very fearful about how President-elect Obama would govern. I had railed against him for a year and a half.

I had an epiphany in 2011 and my view of the world changed. I voted for Obama in 2012. All things considered, President Obama turned out to be one of the best Presidents of my lifetime. My fear in 2008 was misguided and unnecessary.

I had similar emotions of fear this morning. I hope the new President turns out better than I currently believe he will.

Nice rant Joseph Mccarthy James Bowie.