Mt. Owned Horse In Kentucky Derby
founder
supporter
Posted by Tom Masa (+2042) 8 years ago
Kentucky Derby horse Frac Daddy (no.18)is owned by two Billings Men. He is 50-1 odds

http://billingsgazette.co...47e53.html

[This message has been edited by Tom Masa (5/3/2013)]
Top
Posted by Mathew Schmitz (+284) 8 years ago
That's worth a ten spot. Even a blind squirrel finds an occasional acorn.
No offense intended to the Montana owned horse. But 50 - 1 makes him a seat filler. Still worth $10 though.

[This message has been edited by Mathew Schmitz (5/3/2013)]

[This message has been edited by Mathew Schmitz (5/3/2013)]
Top
founder
supporter
Posted by Amorette Allison (+11757) 8 years ago
Frac Daddy is named after the fracking in oilfields, which is how the owners made their money. Several of us at the Star were discussing placing a bet or two.
Top
Posted by Mathew Schmitz (+284) 8 years ago
Instead of $10 to win, $5 across the board (win, place and show) for a total bet of $15 is probably the way to go. May be burning $15, but could win lots of lettuce if the unthinkable happens. And in horse racing, it often does. I think that's what I am going to do. Buy local.
Top
supporter
Posted by MRH (+1500) 8 years ago
His odd were 15:1 by the 10:00pm news.
Top
supporter
Posted by Bob L. (+5094) 8 years ago
Yup, he's down to 15-1.

I looked at the betting pools, not much has been bet yet. Only about $240,000 in the win pool so far.

http://www.courier-journa...r-payoffs-

I expect Frac Daddy's odds to go up today as the real money flows into the parimutual pools.

He's a good bet at anything 30-1 or higher. He's had some health problems. His best performances have been at Churchill, where he broke his maiden last year by over 9 lengths.

Worth a flyer, stranger things have happened. I won't be on him today, but good luck to anyone who bets him!
Top
Posted by Mathew Schmitz (+284) 8 years ago
I know how to read a program, and how to pick a horse, but the science behind the betting line eludes me. How could Frac Daddy drop to 15 - 1 if only that little bit of money had been bet so far? Are that many Montanans placing bets, driving the odds down? Is that how it works? When the real money gets dropped on other horses, those odds should climb back to well over 30 - 1? Am I even close with my thinking?
Top
supporter
Posted by M T Zook (+515) 8 years ago
Watching CNN in Brazil and they just mentioned Frac Daddy! Pretty cool!
Top
Posted by Mathew Schmitz (+284) 8 years ago
Turns out I have to go to Billings, Butte, or Helena to place a bet. Not gonna happen for me today. But just so you know, my bet would be $5 across the board on Frac Daddy. I just saw he's at 22 - 1. I wish the odds were actually longer, but since I am just a spectator today, I guess the odds don't really matter to me or my wallet.

[This message has been edited by Mathew Schmitz (5/4/2013)]
Top
supporter
Posted by Bob L. (+5094) 8 years ago
Matthew:

In parimutuel betting, the odds constantly adjust based on how much $$$ is bet on each horse. The track keeps about 20% grease or vig on the handle (amount of $$$ bet), so it's hard to make a buck as a horse better.




http://en.wikipedia.org/w...el_betting
Top
supporter
Posted by Gunnar Emilsson (+17317) 8 years ago
He did indeed run like a 22 to 1 horse today.
Top
Posted by Oddjob (+194) 8 years ago
Yeah. $15 bucks in the tank. I had high hopes a Montana horse could run in the mud..... Of course I also had to bet the jockey on "Revolutionary" so another $5 burned..
Top
supporter
Posted by Bob L. (+5094) 8 years ago
You do realize Frac Daddy has never set foot (hoof?) in Montana, right?

Top
founder
supporter
Posted by Amorette Allison (+11757) 8 years ago
Frac Daddy is no Spokane.
Top
Posted by Mathew Schmitz (+284) 8 years ago
I was hoping that the blistering pace set out of the gate might hurt some of the favorites. That didn't happen. Frac Daddy looked to be in pretty good shape, and in a pretty good position, until the backstretch. Still a little surprised that Orb was able to come back from nearly still in the barn on the backstretch. That was a very impressive late run.
Top
Posted by Oddjob (+194) 8 years ago
"You do realize Frac Daddy has never set foot (hoof?) in Montana, right?"

No. I didn't, but it wouldn't have made any difference. I follow horse racing as much as I follow the NBA, but I do know the odds don't mean Jack. You bet the story, the jockey or your favorite color and you probably stand the same chance of winning as the guys who sit in the casinos all day pouring over racing forms.

In the 2009 Kentucky Derby, you had the story of "Mine that Bird", a $10,000 horse. His owner, sporting a cast on a broken foot, loads the animal up in a horse trailer in New Mexico and drags him 1200 miles behind his pickup truck to Churchill Downs. On top of that you get the jockey, Calvin Borel, 50-1 odds and a whole gaggle of Saudi princes who had million $$$ horses entered.

How can you NOT bet that?
Top
supporter
Posted by Bob L. (+5094) 8 years ago
but I do know the odds don't mean Jack. You bet the story, the jockey or your favorite color and you probably stand the same chance of winning as the guys who sit in the casinos all day pouring over racing forms.



Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

It's hard for anyone to win money long-term because the track generally keeps over 20% of the handle.

But people who know how to read and interpret a racing form will do better than those who bet a number or a color.
Top
Posted by Oddjob (+194) 8 years ago
I agree on the "vig". The only guys that win are the ones who run the game.

On the other point, for the dedicated gambler that's probably true because they pick their battles.

I had a conversation yesterday with an acquaintance who is a dedicated gambler (sports, horses, etc.). Every time I see the guy, he has his hands full of racing forms. I asked him if he made any money on the Kentucky Derby and he said no, that he hasn't bet it in years.."Too many horses". So for the unsophisticated wagerers who only dabble betting on the spectacles, the only way to win big dough is catch the lightening bolt.
Top
Posted by Elizabeth Emilsson (+797) 8 years ago
Wrong, wrong, wrong. People who bet on colors get the most fun out of betting on horses. That's the whole point My daughter who understands the odds bets very cautiously. Although she never loses her shirt , she also won't get rich from it. I would have bet on Frac Daddy because he's a gray and my late husband always believe grays ran faster.
Top
Posted by Mathew Schmitz (+284) 8 years ago
I went to the horse races in Miles City one time with a lady friend from high school. I studied the racing forum, and placed my bets with diligence and care. And promptly lost my ass. She picked the horses that "wore" the prettiest colors, and she walked out with $700 more than she had when we walked in. That day drove me nuts for years, but it just proves that betting on horse races should only be done with money you can afford to lose. I still enjoy placing a bet or 2, but it's more about the fun and cold beer for me these days. There is still very little in sport that compares to the excitement of horses thundering down the stretch towards the finish line. Bets placed or not.
Top
supporter
Posted by Jeri Dalbec (+3242) 8 years ago
I remember a theory that if they have taped ankles it is just a con to make you think something is wrong. So..good old "Dill Pickle" had bandaged ankles...loved his name too...bet on him and he was dead last. Guess I would bet on colors being the best too:-)
Top
Posted by Dillpickle (+34) 8 years ago
If you had ever seen me in H.S. track, you would have never bet on anything named Dill Pickle. Maybe if I tape my ankles though....
Top
supporter
Posted by Bob L. (+5094) 8 years ago
Frac Daddy's in the Belmont at 30-1

Looks like a wide open race. Not much to choose from among the 5-6 top horses.

Frac Daddy looks to be bred to run the distance and the trainer (McPeak) won in 2002 with Sarava, a 70-1 shot. Frac Daddy lacks closing speed but has shown a lot of try in previous efforts. That might be enough for him to hit the board...or not.

I'll probably be throwing Frac Daddy in some exotics, like his chances better here than in KY.
Top
banned
Posted by Al Borden (+256) 8 years ago
He can`t get pinched out of the gate and hopefully God will give him blindingly fast speed. They are going to try to take him to the front out of the gate. I do not see Orb winning this one , the KD was his day and his track , this is not. FracDaddy beat Oxbow in April. I hope it`s his day. The race will start in the stretch.
Top
supporter
Posted by Richard Bonine, Jr. (+14950) 8 years ago
Top