How accurate is Gazette polling?
Posted by Kacey (+3153) 9 years ago
Just curious how much stock people put in the polls done by the Gazette and other places. When you are questioning a little over 600 people that you reached by phone..and guessing Gazette subscribers...how accurate it is?

Are these people who have home phones? Most younger people are only accessible with cell phones and those numbers aren't as readily available.

Just wondering how others feel about the telephone polls.
Top
Posted by Larry Brence (+137) 9 years ago
The polling is conducted by a Washington DC research firm, Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.

http://www.mason-dixon.co.../HOME.html

One would assume their 625 respondents are chosen via some random selection protocol across the state.

As for cell phone only voters, I know it's been a problem in polling. Whether they have some way to account for it, I'm not sure.
Top
supporter
Posted by Cory Cutting (+1278) 9 years ago
statistics will help you understand the pool of polled people and why "how many" are chosen.
Top
supporter
Posted by Jeri Dalbec (+3266) 9 years ago
A friend in Billings was called and was first asked her age. When she told them they said, "thank you" and hung up. She is not sure what age voter they were looking for...but, probably younger.
Top
Posted by Larry Brence (+137) 9 years ago
I would think they probably need a certain number of all age groups, so if your age group is full when they call you, then there is no need to go any further.
Top
supporter
Posted by Richard Bonine, Jr. (+15076) 9 years ago
When the margin of error exceeds the percentage difference for each candidate the proper conclusions is nobody really knows. I do know that statistics lie and liars often use statistics.
Top
supporter
sponsor
Posted by Frank Hardy (+1650) 9 years ago
I got called by a group that obviously represented Mitt Romney. They hung up right after I answered "no" to the question "Do you own a yacht?"

Buggers!

Later that day Obama's pollers called. I'm sure of that, because right after I answered "yes" to the question "Do you see anything wrong with a Kenyan socialist who hates America being reelected President?", the line went "click".

Partisan dunkels!

FH
Top
Posted by Kacey (+3153) 9 years ago
thanks Frank. I thought there might just be one decent discussion on here without someone slinging crap. Hey, maybe 5 threads before it went downhill is a record for MC.com!
Top
moderator
founder
Posted by David Schott (+17424) 9 years ago
When Kacey agrees with the poll results, 100% accurate.

When Kacey disagrees with the poll results, 100% inaccurate.

Is that the answer you were looking for?

Top
Posted by Tomm (-1027) 9 years ago
I have read many threads on MC.C, and hate the way some one asking a valid question is treated. Seems a handfull of people think the workd needs to know thier narrow minded opinions. So many replies have nothing to do with the question or statement that after one or two replies, nothing else applies.

If MC.C wants to have good discussions, the monitor needs to monitor.
Top
founder
supporter
Posted by Amorette Allison (+11898) 9 years ago
Every single poll I have seen, no matter who conducts it, has the results falling within the margin of error of the poll. So, dead heat is all you can take away from a poll, not matter who does it.
Top
supporter
Posted by Buck Showalter (+4454) 9 years ago
If MC.C wants to have good discussions, the monitor needs to monitor.


Cough up twenty bucks and you can say practically anything you want.

And learn to spell your name...
Top
Posted by Tomm (-1027) 9 years ago
See what I mean.
Top
Posted by Larry W. Dann (+57) 9 years ago
Most polls are only as accurate as the organization conducting them wants them to be. I also have had a lot of calls from polsters with the same result as others posting on here. If you answer the first or second question in a way they don`t like, the line goes dead.
Most polls during this election show how close this election really is in that the difference between the candidates is within the margin of error of that poll.
Rather than believing polls and listening to all the political ads that may be be skewed by the organization running them, I suggest everyone research each candidate and their backgrounds. That is what I have done.
I have made up my mind based on what I found out about each candidate
My conclusion is that this country is not a business created to make profits for the CEO (boss)and the investors, but a country of the people, by the people and for the people.
I do not think electing a "Boss" like Mitt Romney is going to help our country in the least.
Obama/Biden 2012
Top
supporter
Posted by Kelly (+2734) 9 years ago
Nice Post Larry Dann.

In addition to the points that Larry made, do not forget that polls are a popular vote. We do not elect the President that way. When polls are tallied by electoral vote, the results are very different.
Top