Be careful what you wish for ...
I never pick the Cowboys to lose and I strive to always be honest, Mrs. P. Those two things put me in a bit of a pickle when it comes to giving a prediction for tonight's game.
IF the Cowboys play their best game of the year in terms of effort and execution and IF the Cowboys cut down on mental errors and IF the defensive secondary fill the gaps and IF the Cowboys don't let up until the whistle blows and IF the backs run hard and IF the receivers make an effort for the ball (even if it's not perfectly thrown) and IF the passes are on target, and IF the Cowboys don't get discouraged if things don't go their way on a given play, series or quarter, the Cowboys CAN win.
But anything less than maximum effort by every player on every down will result in a loss, possibly an ugly one, and an 0-2 hole in conference play. Sidney and Hardin will NOT be pushovers this season (especially the Bulldogs in Hardin in the final game of the regular season). The Cowboys need this game and they need to play as though a playoff berth is on the line, because it very well might be.
The problem against Laurel last Friday wasn't that the Locomotives blew the Cowboys off the ball. They didn't. The offensive and defensive lines for Miles City, being considerably bigger than Laurel's, didn't give ground. That having been said, they didn't blow Laurel off the line, either. The Cowboys didn't give up 306 yards rushing because our D-line was being pushed back. The Locomotives were successful because they ran through the gaps the Cowboys didn't fill and because they broke attempted tackles.
Miles City couldn't match Laurel score for score because the timing was off in the passing game and secondary receivers didn't get much of a look if the primary receiver was covered. Many balls were forced, which resulted in 22 incompletions out of 32 attempts (the second-most missed attempts in Cowboy history). Some were bad throws, others were the result of less-than-stellar effort on the part of the receivers and some were outright drops.
The Cowboys' quarterback is good and has the potential to be one of, if not the best signal-caller the team has had. He showed a great deal of heart in against Laurel and had some big runs. But the fact remains that he is a sophomore and is still developing. Not every pass is going to be perfect and the receivers need to adjust when they can. If the passing game isn't running on all cylinders, the backs need to pick up the slack by running hard, holding on to the ball and breaking tackles.
If the Cowboys play the way they did against Laurel last Friday, they will lose by four touchdowns. And before anyone rips on me for "not supporting the kids" or not being positive, keep in mind that I don't believe that blowing smoke helps the players get any better. If anyone has a problem with my analysis of the Laurel game or my thoughts, please show me how I am incorrect.
What gives me hope is that Billings Central has shown a history of taking games for granted. Most of the Rams were at the Laurel game. At least one of them was wearing a "Faith is essential to victory" shirt. I would argue that the belief that you're going to win is worth nothing in comparison to the actual execution of all of the things that make victory possible. The Cowboys have shown that they can beat outstanding teams. Teams which probably believed that all they needed to do was to show up in order to get a victory. Laurel proved that the Cowboys aren't suited be one of those teams.
If Miles City plays like Laurel did last week - or like the Cowboys played against Dillon and Central last season - they can win. Miles City is very good against the pass, something the Rams like to do. Central doesn't have many weaknesses, but they gave up 225 yards passing and 40 points to Dillon. The Cowboys can take notes from that game and hope to do something similar.
When Miles City has beaten Central, it's been because the Cowboys out-worked, out-fought and out-hit the Rams. When they've lost, it's been because they were out-hustled and out-run.
Prediction: if the Cowboys do all of the things they need to do, they'll win, 29-23. If not, the score will be 40-12.