Talbot, that doesn't impress me.
In a nine-inning game the batter will get to bat roughly three times. In those at-bats, one of the following will happen:
1. A Hit
2. A Walk
3. A Homer
4. An Out
However that happens, one of the above WILL
occur. Given that it's fairly easy to say the batter will hit a home-run. It's also fairly easy to say that at some point a batter will get the "Hitter's Count" (3-1, 3-0 etc) in which the next pitch is usually a fastball down the middle.
Also I don't know if you've been to Safeco Field or not but here it is:
Saying that a home run will land in the second level is also not that hard to arrive at.
So "Predicting" that a guy will hit a home run to the second level on a 3-1 count off of a fastball is like the Infinite Monkey Theorem.
At some point it's going to happen.
[This message has been edited by Kyle L. Varnell (10/6/2009)]